The Melbourne Cup...2.11.2021...

Can 6/4 favourite Incentivise win the 2021 Melbourne Cup....
Bookies stand to lose $50 million if he does....
Some facts and figures....
He is carrying 57K...barrier 16 (not a problem)
Trained by Peter Moody...(trained Black Caviar...unbeaten...won 25 straight...)
Only four horses in the last 60 years have carried 57K or more to win the Cup....
Makybe Diva (won 3 cups in a row)
Rain Lover (won 2 in a row)
Think Big (won two in a row)
Gold and Black...
Incentivise has also won the Caulfield Cup this year....
Only 11 horses have won the two cups double in the last 100 years...
I believe that Incentivise was over weighted in the Caulfield Cup.
He was weighted on his potential..not his record...
As he won the Caulfield Cup, he was liable for a penalty.
The handicapper gave him an extra 1.5kg.
Weight stops a train they say...
Personally, I thought he should have carried 53.5K in the CC and with the penalty
of 1.5K..he would be carrying 55K in the MC...
On Tuesday he will be trying to win 10 straight....
The race that stops a nation will have 10,000 spectators, as gulag Victoria is permitting
a small crowd, but spectators must live within 25K of the track...
I would like to see Incentivise win....he is an iron horse....a budding champion...
BUT I dont think Ill be backing him....
Good luck if youre having a bet...
Here is Incentivise winning the CC.....
A CHAMPION IS BORN | 2021 Caulfield Cup (G1) | INCENTIVISE | - Bing video

Why won't you be backing him?

At the moment I feel that the stats and weight are against him...
If theres any rain about 57K becomes 58K...if its a bog its 59K
Besides, at 6/4 I dont think he's value in a race which is so
hard to win...
Ill have a look at the rest of them probably tomorrow and Tuesday
before I decide what I back....

Has he been handicapped because he's the only Aussie horse in the race? Wouldn't surprise me.

Good point...we have to sell the race to the overseas interests...
Twilight Payment, who won the race last year only has 58K
Verry Elleegant, an Australian mare is weighted on the same weight as
Incentivise...cant work these two weights out....
I know its the handicappers job to given every nag an equal chance, but
for mine, the weights for TP and VE relative to Incentivise are both/all
wrong...

I agree, not that I know the field, but it seems those Aussie horses just have to be held back.

At least Emirates has been taken out of the MC. That used to make my blood boil.

https://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/melbourne-cup/melbourne-cup-speed-guide-23-horses-wiped-out-in-60-seconds/news-story/0eca17894c6af7418ca38d8d086f53fe

Who are you picking Billy?

I finished up settling on Floating Artist...

They have a 9yo carrying 58kg. That's a bit rough too.