Fact check: Biden doesn't really beat Trump in touted NYTimes/Siena poll

The topline in the Trump vs. Biden matchup was Biden 44, Trump 41. The White House treated it like it was a silver lining in a poll that had Biden with a 33% approval rating.

However, the object of American presidential elections is to win the electoral college.

I didn't bother checking the crosstabs until now because I don't take NYTimes polling seriously, but as I've heard about Biden losing support, I begin to question, where is it happening? Like, if he's just losing support in the south, that would mean very little for 2022.


So, the 2020 election by region, according to Wikipedia (if you think you have more accurate totals, be my guest), was:

Midwest: Trump 51, Biden 47
South: Trump 53, Biden 46
West: Biden 57, Trump 41
Northeast: Biden 58, Trump 40

The crosstabs of the poll by region are:

Midwest: Trump 47, Biden 41 (net 2% improvement for Trump)
South: Trump 49, Biden 38 (net 4% improvement for Trump)
West: Biden 46, Trump 36 (net 6% improvement for Trump)
Northeast: Biden 55, Trump 28 (net 9% improvement for Biden)

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/us0722-crosstabs-nyt071122/33ffa85627ee4648/full.pdf

So, Biden leading Trump in the popular vote in the NYTimes poll rested entirely on the northeast.

The changes in regional splits would give Trump Arizona and Nevada in the West, Georgia in the South, and Wisconsin in the Midwest. Biden flips the coveted Maine's second congressional district from his probably impossible margin in the Northeast. Lol. The final tally is Trump 277, Grandpa Badfinger 261.

This is objective analysis. No bias.

Biden WON

Trump LOST

You're on the wrong track again Sprint. Try reading the OP first next time.

Sprintcyclist wrote:Biden WON

Trump LOST

Why is Biden losing to Trump in every poll, even though polls wildly overestimated Biden in 2020? Could it be because people realize Biden sucks and Trump was better? Or maybe Biden never won to begin with. Pick your poison.